This market resolved: No (98.6%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 6:15 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1.4%
No98.6%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Category 5 hurricane form?
KalshiWhat month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsHow active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 3 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExRules
**Resolves YES** if the U.S. National Hurricane Center designates any Atlantic-basin tropical cyclone as a **hurricane** — maximum sustained winds of at least 64 knots (74 mph) — in a public advisory valid at any time from market creation through **2026-09-30 23:59 UTC**. **Resolves NO** if the Atlantic basin reaches 2026-10-01 with no hurricane having formed at any point in the 2026 season. **Oracle:** the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) — public advisories, and the Tropical Weather Outlook archive.
- If NHC post-season best-track analysis published before resolution upgrades a storm to hurricane intensity for a time inside the window, that counts. **Notes:** Atlantic basin only (North Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf).
- Eastern/Central Pacific storms do not count.
- Landfall is irrelevant — formation at hurricane intensity anywhere in the basin is the entire bar.
- Subtropical storms count only if NHC classifies them at hurricane intensity. --- **Background (as of 2026-09-12):** The Atlantic has produced five named storms — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard — and **not one has reached hurricane strength**.
- A normal season has roughly eight named storms and three hurricanes by this date. 2026 has now passed the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane (11 September: Gustav in 2002, Humberto in 2013).