Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?
BitcoinOne-OffRegulationCryptoCrime & Justice6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 22, 2:41 AM UTCJan 1, 33, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Inspired by https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/its-time-to-get-serious-about-regulating, particularly this quote:
- As I pointed out at the time, the US government’s arguments against Liberty Reserve could easily be used against Bitcoin.
- Indeed, I believe this is a big reason Satoshi Nakamoto chose to create Bitcoin using a pseudonym: If he had identified himself, he might have wound up in prison like Liberty Reserve founder Arthur Budovsky.
- Note that the rationale behind the imprisonment must simply be the creation of the cryptocurrency, not what they do with it later.
- SBF may go to prison, but it wasn't for creating FTT.
- In the event that the crimes they were charged with were something other than the creation of the cryptocurrency but it seems motivated by that, I'll resolve to PROB based on how much of the true reason for the government's focus on them seems to be the creation of the currency.
