Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 23, 5:54 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will state legal recreational marijuana sales begin in Virginia?
Manifold MarketsWhat’s the next state to legalize recreational marijuana? 🍁
Manifold MarketsHow many states will legalize medical marijuana before it becomes legal federally?
Manifold MarketsWill marijuana be rescheduled?
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWeed rescheduled by which date?
PolymarketRules
Federal legalization counts unless Texas is credibly moving to block it somehow in the state.
- No stores or anything need to be open either, just the law is passed.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Texas legalize recreational Marijuana before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Texas legalize recreational Marijuana before 2030? resolve?
- Will Texas legalize recreational Marijuana before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will Texas legalize recreational Marijuana before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Federal legalization counts unless Texas is credibly moving to block it somehow in the state.