Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?
One-OffRegulationUS PoliticsSports3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 26, 24, 6:31 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the "right to part-time work" be significantly restricted in Germany before February 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
PolymarketWill California legalise sports betting by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alaska legalise sports betting by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRules
On my twitter feed I've seen a lot of backlash against the recent liberalization of sports betting.
- This question is of sudden relevance to users of Manifold.
- I will resolve YES if the number of states permitting it falls to half the current rate, or if federal restrictions on the industry are imposed such that it is no longer possible for the typical person to bet from their phone while watching a game.
- Please request any clarifications you might need to make informed bets.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $289.9K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt44%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-13.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before May 1, 2027+5.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt47%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $122.2K
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030? resolve?
- Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On my twitter feed I've seen a lot of backlash against the recent liberalization of sports betting.