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Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?

One-OffTech Space6y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81%

Forecasters

44

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 33 minutes ago

Apr 2, 24, 2:34 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpinLaunch

The technology uses a vacuum-sealed centrifuge to spin a rocket and then hurl it to space at up to 4,700 mph (7,500 km/h; 2.1 km/s).
The rocket then ignites its engines at an altitude of roughly 200,000 ft (60 km) to reach orbital speed of 17,150 mph (27,600 km/h; 7.666 km/s) with a payload of up to 200kg.
Peak acceleration would be approximately 10,000 g.
If successful, the acceleration concept is projected to lower the cost of launches and to use much less power, with the price of a single space launch reduced by a factor of 20 to under US$500,000.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032??: Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032? resolve?: Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
How is Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpinLaunch

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