Current community forecast
Yes 62.7%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 8:19 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
Manifold MarketsWhen will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.
- Delivering such a vehicle to the moon will require multiple in-orbit propellant refillings in order to provide sufficient delta v.
- Will all Starship-SuperHeavy launches intended to deliver propellant to a vehicle in orbit for this purpose have a successful landing of both the booster and ship?
- A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a ship or booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts as a successful landing.
- A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count.
- A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.