Current community forecast
Yes 62.7%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 8:19 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
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KalshiRules
SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.
- Delivering such a vehicle to the moon will require multiple in-orbit propellant refillings in order to provide sufficient delta v.
- Will all Starship-SuperHeavy launches intended to deliver propellant to a vehicle in orbit for this purpose have a successful landing of both the booster and ship?
- A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a ship or booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts as a successful landing.
- A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count.
- A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? resolve?
- Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.