Current community forecast
Yes 60%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 24, 2:01 AM UTCJan 2, 32, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? resolve?
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2032.
- How is Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?