Current community forecast
Yes 99%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 22, 23, 5:47 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Currently SpaceX has launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times.
- The expectation is that when Starship is operational, Falcon 9 will be phased out in favor of Starship.
- Will they launch at least 700 times before retiring the Falcon 9?
- This market includes early versions of Falcon 9 as well as current and potential future versions.
- It also includes Falcon Heavy, though each Heavy launch only counts once, not 3 times.
- This market does not count Falcon 1.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times? resolve?
- Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently SpaceX has launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times.