Current community forecast
Yes 83.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingMay 22, 23, 5:47 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Falcon launch more times in 2028 than 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Falcon launch more times in 2027 than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Falcon 9 launch from the Guiana Space Centre before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
Currently SpaceX had launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times.
- The expectation is that when Starship is operational, Falcon 9 will be phased out in favor of Starship.
- Will they launch at least 800 times before retiring the Falcon 9?
- This market includes early versions of Falcon 9 as well as current and potential future versions.
- It also includes Falcon Heavy, though each Heavy launch only counts once, not 3 times.
- This market does not count Falcon 1.