Current community forecast
Yes 80.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 22, 23, 5:47 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?
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KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
Currently SpaceX had launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times.
- The expectation is that when Starship is operational, Falcon 9 will be phased out in favor of Starship.
- Will they launch at least 800 times before retiring the Falcon 9?
- This market includes early versions of Falcon 9 as well as current and potential future versions.
- It also includes Falcon Heavy, though each Heavy launch only counts once, not 3 times.
- This market does not count Falcon 1.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times? resolve?
- Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently SpaceX had launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times.