Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (80.9%)
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 9:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 80.9%
Forecasters
89
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 11:35 AMAug 14, 26, 9:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes19.1%
No80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Rules
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14.
- This is intended as a regular series.
- Something happens is defined as anything that:
- Zvi does NOT know about on August 7, 2026 at 5pm EST.
- Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
- Is about AI.
