This market resolved: Yes (67.6%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 7:51 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 67.6%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleAug 14, 26, 5:45 PMAug 19, 26, 7:51 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes67.6%
No32.400000000000006%
67.6%
32.4%
Rules
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 14, until 5pm EST on August 21.
- This is intended as a regular series.
- Something happens is defined as anything that:
- Zvi does NOT know about on August 14, 2026 at 5pm EST.
- Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
- Is about AI.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $185.5K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $198K
- 24h Vol
- $182.1K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of August 20, 2026.
- When does Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026? resolve?
- Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 19, 2026.
- How is Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 14, until 5pm EST on August 21.