Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
One-OffSociety & Culture3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 22, 3:35 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.
- It must be something where a significant number of Scott's friends, readers, and/or professional aquaintances are angry at him or want to stop associating with him.
- It must also be public enough that I hear about it through public channels.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
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- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
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- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
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- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? resolve?
- Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.