At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
One-OffSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.2%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 22, 3:57 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
KalshiWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRules
Shortly after market close, I will post a poll on Manifold asking "Do you personally believe that Scott Alexander is a highly unethical person, or otherwise have a strongly negative opinion of him?" Three options:
- I don't know enough about him to have a meaningful opinion
- I will resolve this market to the fraction of "Yes" responses / "No" responses.
- The poll will be limited to one response per manifold account, and will be anonymous.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.