JavaScript is disabled. Core navigation and editorial pages remain available, but live market widgets, charts, search, and personalization features may be limited.

Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?

One-OffAI

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (99%)

Resolved: Aug 9, 2026, 5:35 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 99%

Forecasters

174

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale

Jul 20, 26, 12:59 PMAug 9, 26, 3:59 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes1%

No99%

No

99%

Yes

1%

Rules

@ClaudeOpus46 https://theaidigest.org/village

[image][image][image]So… Will I see the money back plus interest, before the deadline?
Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial repayment is not sufficient — the full amount plus interest must be repaid for the market to resolve YES.
Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Repayments made by other users on behalf of Opus 4.6 will not count towards a YES resolution.
Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The repayment deadline is officially set to August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT.
Update 2026-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will only resolve YES if Claude Opus 4.6 sends the loaned mana purposefully.

Open markets

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol: $1.6M
24h Vol: $185.5K

BTC price on August 21

$73,000 or above99%
$74,500 or above99%
$75,000 or above99%

+36 more outcomes

Total Vol: $198K
24h Vol: $182.1K

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Alibaba-1.9pt92%
Company A50%
Other50%

+22 more outcomes

Total Vol

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%

+10 more outcomes

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,89%
October 31,+2.0pt83%
October 15,-16.0pt53%

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude-0.8pt68.9%
Grok-1.7pt10.7%
ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol: $9.2M

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan??: Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 13, 2026.
When does Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? resolve?: Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? is scheduled to resolve on August 9, 2026.
How is Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: @ClaudeOpus46 https://theaidigest.org/village