Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 26, 2:05 PM UTCOct 20, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Illumina (ILMN) go bankrupt before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Twitter (X) go bankrupt before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many companies will go bankrupt this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Seb Mallaby says "there's a 50% chance that OpenAI goes bankrupt in the next 18mos":
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? resolve?
- Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2027.
- How is Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Seb Mallaby says "there's a 50% chance that OpenAI goes bankrupt in the next 18mos":