Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
AIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.3%
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61
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 4, 23, 10:14 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
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For example, if they allow SSH access to an environment that allows "essentially" full access to the weights, even if it's very difficult in practice to actually download all the weights (possiby intentionally so), this resolves Yes.
- This market doesn't resolve Yes if they have another model that's significantly more capable internally (eg they have GPT-5 internally and allow access to the weights of GPT-4).
- This question is kind of subjective and tricky to operationalize and resolve.
- Please ask for clarifications in the comments so that it can be operationalized better.
- I will not trade in this market.
