Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026?
RegulationOne-OffCorporate ActionsGeopolitics6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:21 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 155 F-35 aircraft in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Lockheed Martin deliver more than 120 F-35 aircraft in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2028?
Manifold MarketsLockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3
KalshiAnduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketLockheed Martin headcount in fiscal 2026
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if Lockheed Martin delivers more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026.
- What is being measured: Total F-35 (all variants, all customers) deliveries by Lockheed Martin in calendar year 2026, as reported in Lockheed's annual report (published ~February 2027), settled March 31 2027.
- YES if: F-35 annual deliveries >= 190 aircraft for 2026 NO if: Deliveries are below 190 aircraft
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Lockheed Martin 10-K annual report (SEC EDGAR, lmco.com/investors) — delivery tables
- Lockheed Martin Q4 earnings press release — annual deliveries summary
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026? resolve?
- Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Lockheed Martin delivers more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2026.