Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
BlackRockOne-OffFedPoliticsCentral BanksMacro & Economy3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 1:55 AM UTCMay 15, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target is set to 0.00% (or a range with 0% as the lower bound, such as 0.00%-0.25%) at any point during the tenure of Jerome Powell's successor as Federal Reserve Chair.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/.
- The market resolves NO if the successor's tenure ends without the rate ever reaching 0%.
- Powell's term as chair expires in May 2026, and the five candidates on the shortlist are Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock head of fixed income Rick Rieder.
- The Fed has twice lowered the rate to 0.0% to 0.25%—the first time during the financial crisis of 2008, and the second time in March 2020.
