Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentMusicMiddle East1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 27.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 10:19 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes27%
Volume trend
$25Jul 173d of dataJul 19
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.