Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 26, 3:14 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 3:09 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on buying a personal mini-air-conditioner, will I regret the purchase come summers-end?
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KalshiRules
I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.
- By September 2026, will I regret having done AFFINE instead of just finals (100%) or not having committed to AFFINE fully? (0%).
- It is noteworthy that AFFINE will likely have a year-long extension for 10 potential promising ASI alignment researchers, out of ~30.
- My chance is lower by committing less.
- Similarly, I may have worse final exam results, but the consequences of this don't seem very clear, given I don't care much which university I go to.
- If I regret nothing, that would be great and id just pick the one I'm closer to regretting.
Open markets
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.8K
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11K
- 24h Vol
- $3K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+3.5pt77.2%
- Yes-3.5pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $22.9K
- 24h Vol
- $766.7
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $57.9K
- 24h Vol
- $651.1
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
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- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I regret AFFINE or school??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will I regret AFFINE or school? resolve?
- Will I regret AFFINE or school? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will I regret AFFINE or school? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.