Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.5%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 1, 23, 11:52 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?
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FutuurElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
This will resolve to YES, if on Jan 1, 2030
- Elon Musk has an active profile on X.com //////////////////
- if Elon dies if X.com substantially rebrands if Elon is banned from X etc - will resolve to NO.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk have an active ๐ profile on January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk have an active ๐ profile on January 1, 2030? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk have an active ๐ profile on January 1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Elon Musk have an active ๐ profile on January 1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will resolve to YES, if on Jan 1, 2030