What are the current odds for Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2050??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.3% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2050? resolve?

Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2050.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2050, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 86.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Dec 25, 23, 1:44 AM UTCMar 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2050, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.

This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people to and from Earth's orbit without the use of traditional rocket propulsion.
The Space Elevator must be capable of regular operation and able to sustain continuous movement of payloads between Earth and space.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029