Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 71.2%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 25, 25, 10:35 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before the year 2029?
- Inspired by this dude's post on X. He (Tim Denning) seems to believe that Roy Lee, the college-dropout-turned-supposed-Silicon-Valley-wunderkind behind Cluely, a yet released AI "cheating app", is set to become a billionaire by 2029.
- So much so, in fact, that he claims he "bet his life savings" on it...
- [image]While this is pretty obvious hyperbole, I thought it'd be interesting to create this market and allow him (and others) to put their money where their mouth is, as the replies to the thread on X have been quite contentious and entertaining, to say the least.
- Given that said thread basically consists of some poorly written slop that comes across as a bizarre hybrid between marketing copy for Cluely/Roy Lee's "outspoken" persona and an advertisement for Tim Denning's own paid course or eBook or whatever, I'm doubt that Tim will be dropping any real cash.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+10.0pt62%
- 180-199+18.5pt31%
- 220-239-22.1pt7%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $555.2K
POLYMARKETVariational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $200M-0.3pt98%
- $100M-0.7pt98%
- $300M+0.1pt96%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Costco say during their next earnings call?
- GLP-1 / GLP 1+64.0pt99%
- Tariff+3.0pt99%
- Churro+56.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?
- 180-199+3.5pt27.7%
- 160-179+9.0pt24.8%
- 200-219-7.0pt16.8%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIMoonshot AI share of spend on Sep 24, 2026 (Vercel)
- Above 13%98%
- Above 19%1%
- Above 21%1%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.8K
- 24h Vol
- $34.8K
KALSHIWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
- No70%
- Yes+3.0pt30%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Xiaomi market share this week
- Colorado permitted housing units in 2026
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
- Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71.2% as of September 25, 2026.
- When does Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? resolve?
- Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before the year 2029?
- Where else is Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.