Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
RegulationOne-OffChessSports1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 23, 5:36 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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FutuurRules
Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.
- Background: Caroline was the dissenting opinion with regards to how the CFTC approached reviewing Kalshi's event contracts.
- She also has the most Twitter followers out of the 5 current commissioners, and thus might be more likely to enjoy posting on Manifold.
- Inspired by @RichardHanania's How to Legalize Prediction Markets.
- See also @/SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
Open markets
Regulation
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- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
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- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
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- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
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- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? resolve?
- Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.