Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.4%
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17
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 23, 5:36 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.
- Background: Caroline was the dissenting opinion with regards to how the CFTC approached reviewing Kalshi's event contracts.
- She also has the most Twitter followers out of the 5 current commissioners, and thus might be more likely to enjoy posting on Manifold.
- Inspired by @RichardHanania's How to Legalize Prediction Markets.
- See also @/SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
