Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 85.5%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 23, 6:38 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Israeli Minister of Defense?
PolymarketRules
Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
