JavaScript is disabled. Core navigation and editorial pages remain available, but live market widgets, charts, search, and personalization features may be limited.

Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

SportsOne-OffChess1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 89.7%

Forecasters

8

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Jan 9, 23, 6:02 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold Markets

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Rules

Bill Gurley, the venture capitalist at Benchmark.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.

Open markets

Sabalenka vs Noskova

Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%

Total Vol: $14.2M
24h Vol: $13.1M

Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

2 Winner+33.0pt100%
O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%

+29 more outcomes

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Barcelona18.1%
Arsenal15.2%
Paris Saint-Germain13.3%

+33 more outcomes

Total Vol: $27.9M

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match

Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
Linda Noskova27.4%

Total Vol: $18.1K
24h Vol: $2.2M

US Open Men's Singles Winner

Carlos Alcaraz57%
Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
Ben Shelton9%

+45 more outcomes

Total Vol: $28M
24h Vol: $2.2M

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
Tie-17.0pt9.9%
Club Brugge-31.0pt3%

Total Vol: $2.5M

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??: Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? resolve?: Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
How is Will Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Bill Gurley, the venture capitalist at Benchmark.

Report a data issue with this market