Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97.9%)
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 1:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 97.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 12:45 PMJul 29, 26, 11:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes97.9%
No2.099999999999994%
97.9%
2.1%
Rules
Resolution will be based primarily on data from the company itself, such as form 10-Q, but may also consider credible media reporting or other sources.
- Repurchase of A shares or B shares would count for this market.
- Only repurchases made during April, May or June 2026 count.
- Share issuances, or conversions between classes, are not relevant.
- Private purchases by Abel, Buffett or anyone else are also not relevant.
- I will aim to resolve this market within one week of the company publishing the relevant data for q2 2026, unless there is material uncertainty or disagreement about the outcome.
Open markets
Corporate Actions
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+7.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+9.0pt83%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.8pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- September 3079%
- September 15+9.0pt60%
- September 945%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIn which month will Anthropic IPO?
- October 2026+5.5pt60.5%
- September 2026+13.5pt18.4%
- November 2026-2.5pt7.9%
+14 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 202865%
- Before May 1, 2027-4.0pt51%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt46%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $807.3K
- IPOs before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which companies will conduct layoffs this year?
- Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 98% as of August 8, 2026.
- When does Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026? resolve?
- Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 29, 2026.
- How is Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution will be based primarily on data from the company itself, such as form 10-Q, but may also consider credible media reporting or other sources.