Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 50.4%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 23, 3:25 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Cristiano Ronaldo play for the Portugal National Team again?
KalshiWill Messi play for the Argentina National Team again?
KalshiNext England National Team Head Coach
PolymarketRules
NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system.
- They intend to use it with Artemis V, which is currently scheduled for 2029.
- Will the lander be ready in time? If not, they may opt to use another Starship HLS.
- If the lander isn't ready yet and they use a Starship mission but call it "Artemis VI", skipping over "Artemis V", then this market resolves to No. The intention is to ask whether the fifth Artemis mission uses National Team's lander.
- If there's an "interim" mission used for Artemis 3, such as LEO docking and reentry, then this market applies to Artemis 6 instead of 5.
- Basically asking, will National Team's lander be ready for a mission after the first two official HLS crew landings?
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? resolve?
- Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system.