Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.4%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 23, 3:25 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt?
Manifold MarketsWhich Artemis HLS system will land on the Moon
Manifold MarketsWill more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?
Manifold MarketsNext England National Team Head Coach
PolymarketWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiRules
NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system.
- They intend to use it with Artemis V, which is currently scheduled for 2029.
- Will the lander be ready in time? If not, they may opt to use another Starship HLS.
- If the lander isn't ready yet and they use a Starship mission but call it "Artemis VI", skipping over "Artemis V", then this market resolves to No. The intention is to ask whether the fifth Artemis mission uses National Team's lander.
- If there's an "interim" mission used for Artemis 3, such as LEO docking and reentry, then this market applies to Artemis 6 instead of 5.
- Basically asking, will National Team's lander be ready for a mission after the first two official HLS crew landings?