Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.6%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 9:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 94.6%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJul 22, 26, 4:26 PMAug 13, 26, 9:03 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
94.6%
5.4%
Rules
This market resolves yes if any Anthropic model is credibly reported to have hacked another entity without being explicitly told to do so in 2026.
- Unsuccessful attempts to do so do not count, Anthropic's model must actually break into the other entity's systems.
- For the purposes of this question, an entity could be a corporation, a non-profit, or a government, or any other similar entity that could come under cyberattack.
- Reporting of such an incident will be considered credible if Anthropic and the entity hacked acknowledge the hack, with Anthropic claiming it was done without explicit instructions.
- If an Anthropic model hacks an entity's systems, while being told to do so by a human, this would NOT count.
- I may wait for corroborating media reports to resolve the market, but the first report of such an incident must happen in 2026 (i.e. if an incident happened in December of 2026, but it wasn't reported on until January of 2027, this would not count).
