Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.3%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 23, 11:19 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting.
- The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.
- This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.