Will a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?
Latin AmericaOne-OffEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 26, 9:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a sitting head of state or head of government of any internationally recognized country posts a video on TikTok or Instagram Reels before December 31, 2026 (23:59 UTC) in which they are clearly dancing.
- What counts:
- The video must be posted to the leader's verified/official TikTok or Instagram account
- The leader must be visibly dancing (not just standing, waving, or clapping) — coordinated body movement to music
- Candid clips posted by others don't count — it must be posted by the leader's own official account
