Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 12:49 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 56%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJun 1, 23, 6:51 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2028, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^27 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2028, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^27 FLOP.
