Current community forecast
No 70%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 22, 24, 2:06 AM UTCJan 5, 40, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 30% of video game players be using a VR headset of some sort to play video games by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Neuralink successfully enable telepathy using its technology by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill California Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human control in real time a humanoid robot on the surface of Mars before 2040 using VR technology??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human control in real time a humanoid robot on the surface of Mars before 2040 using VR technology? resolve?
- Will a human control in real time a humanoid robot on the surface of Mars before 2040 using VR technology? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2040.