Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 24, 11:08 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the WHO achieve its goal to eradicate malaria in 30 countries by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
Smallpox is the only infectious disease to have been eradicated worldwide in Humans.
- It was officially declared eradicated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1980, following a successful global vaccination campaign led by the WHO.
- Will the same happen to Malaria before the end of 2030?
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030? resolve?
- Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Smallpox is the only infectious disease to have been eradicated worldwide in Humans.