Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 83.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 27, 22, 6:09 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]
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KalshiEmmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series
KalshiEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
PolymarketNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketRules
yes this is yet another operationalization of AI timelines
- Close date updated to 2030-12-31 3:59 pm
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast Gaming video on day 1?
- 15–17.5M+28.5pt55.5%
- 17.5–20M+26.7pt43.6%
- 20M+-29.8pt1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.6K
- 24h Vol
- $58.7K
KALSHIEmmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert+1.0pt63.1%
- Tie+3.0pt28.8%
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-1.0pt2.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey+1.0pt55%
- Dune: Part Three12%
- The Black Ball11%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $51.5K
POLYMARKETEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
- “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”+3.5pt76.3%
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”+1.7pt7.2%
- “The Daily Show”+1.9pt6.2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 35+35.0pt99%
- Above 30+1.0pt99%
- Above 2599%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $254.5K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- No Bond chosen+14.6pt36%
- Jack Lowden-16.6pt20%
- Jack Barton-0.2pt12%
+21 more outcomes
- #2 US Netflix Show this week?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- The Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends resolve?
- Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: yes this is yet another operationalization of AI timelines