Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
One-OffRegulationHealth & Medicine8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.4%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 24, 7:22 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.
- An option to skip human testing would be to rely on accurate simulations of the human body, but this would require advanced models that can accurately represent the complex interactions within human biology, including genetic variations and long-term effects.
- Achieving this requires vast computational power, sophisticated algorithms, a deeper integration of diverse biological data and obviously overcoming regulations.
- As far as I understand, the computational requirements for such an effort would be in the realm of exaflops, not far from current supercomputers.
- What are the odds to have an AI generated drug that skips human testing within a decade?
- Feel free to comment and share your thoughts and insights!
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034? resolve?
- Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.