Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
One-OffRegulationHealth & Medicine8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.5%
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 24, 7:22 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
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Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.
- An option to skip human testing would be to rely on accurate simulations of the human body, but this would require advanced models that can accurately represent the complex interactions within human biology, including genetic variations and long-term effects.
- Achieving this requires vast computational power, sophisticated algorithms, a deeper integration of diverse biological data and obviously overcoming regulations.
- As far as I understand, the computational requirements for such an effort would be in the realm of exaflops, not far from current supercomputers.
- What are the odds to have an AI generated drug that skips human testing within a decade?
- Feel free to comment and share your thoughts and insights!
