Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBreakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action 11.5%Leader of 53 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 5:25 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
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KalshiRules
Resolves to whoever gets whoever scott declares as winner of the 2026 ACX Book contest.
- If your favorite book review isn't here, you can add it.
Open markets
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
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- Is Earth flat?
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- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest??
- Manifold Markets prices Breakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action at 12% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? resolve?
- Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to whoever gets whoever scott declares as winner of the 2026 ACX Book contest.