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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Solana
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district

SolanaOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent) 92.8%
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Jun 4, 25, 3:00 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent)93%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district.
  • The official results will be verified through the California Secretary of State's website: California Secretary of State - Election Results.
  • The 38th State Senate district encompasses coastal North County San Diego County communities, including La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff, Rancho Santa Fe, Encinitas, Carlsbad, Vista, Oceanside, San Luis Rey, and Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base, along with the southern edge of Orange County, including San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Ladera Ranch, Las Flores, and Rancho Santa Margarita.
  • (en.wikipedia.org)
  • As of June 2025, the incumbent is Democrat Catherine Blakespear, who assumed office on December 5, 2022.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district.
  • The official results will be verified through the California Secretary of State's website: California Secretary of State - Election Results.
  • The 38th State Senate district encompasses coastal North County San Diego County communities, including La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff, Rancho Santa Fe, Encinitas, Carlsbad, Vista, Oceanside, San Luis Rey, and Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base, along with the southern edge of Orange County, including San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Ladera Ranch, Las Flores, and Rancho Santa Margarita.
  • (en.wikipedia.org)
  • As of June 2025, the incumbent is Democrat Catherine Blakespear, who assumed office on December 5, 2022.