Current community forecast
05 by end of 2028/12 65.9%+7.3ptLeader of 26 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.3 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 19, 25, 3:06 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 3:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be ten or more starships that depart for mars in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
KalshiWill the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
PolymarketRules
To be operational, a Starship must have launched.
- A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use.
- This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
- After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
- Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise.
- For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.