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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?
Manifold Markets

When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?

One-OffSpace2mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026 1%
Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters

16

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Jun 19, 25, 3:06 PMAug 31, 26, 2:30 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 20261%

Rules

To be operational, a Starship must have launched.

Manifold Markets
  • A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use.
  • This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
  • After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
  • Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise.
  • For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,607.99+1.74%EthereumETH$1,652.11+1.38%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.90%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.14%XRPXRP$1.12-0.23%BNBBNB$595.66+1.32%

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Rules

To be operational, a Starship must have launched.

Manifold Markets
  • A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use.
  • This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
  • After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
  • Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise.
  • For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.