When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?
RegulationOne-OffTechHealth & MedicineManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastStudy that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings 84.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
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5
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 23, 25, 11:41 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 12:36 PM UTC
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Context / inspiration: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x8P8EGnujSZm6fyMH/emerging-evidence-on-treating-cluster-headaches-with-dmt Notably: "Currently, there exist no published studies on the efficacy of DMT to treat cluster headaches.
- The bulk of the evidence comes from testimonials of patients and advocates, which we argue is highly credible and should be weighted heavily"
- Study must be peer-reviewed and have a sample size of at least 100.
- Questions on timeline of a study being done are thresholds, i.e. a study being published in 2032 resolves (1) NO, (2) and (3) YES.
- Questions on effects resolve to the results of the first study conducted that investigate that thing.
- I.e. if a study investigates short-term effects but not long-term ones, only the short-term question resolves, and the long-term one resolves when a study investigates long-term effects.
