What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastA book in the main ASOIAF series (ie a sequel to “A Dance with Dragons”, eg “The Winds of Winter”) 49.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
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5
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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0.0 pts
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 25, 5:11 PM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
George R. R. Martin has released a number of works in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” (ASOIAF) universe since his 1996 novel “A Game of Thrones”.
- The most recent work in the universe was “Fire & Blood”, an in-universe history book published in 2018, while the main series of ASOIAF novels is still unfinished, with five of a projected seven novels published.
- Martin’s age (he was born in 1948) and slow progress with the books has led to concerns among fans that the main series and “Dunk and Egg” novellas will not be finished.
- This market resolves to the next book or story (eg a short story in an anthology) officially written by Martin (possibly with a collaborator or collaborators) and released within his lifetime.
- Books and stories must have substantial new content (eg a book consisting of an extract of “Fire & Blood” would not count), though they may overlap (eg a second volume of “Fire & Blood” would likely have some content in common with “The World of Ice and Fire”).
- An official release is needed, so leaks would not count.