US fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
One-OffSociety & Culture4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingAug 27, 25, 3:32 AM UTCMar 1, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Total Fertility Rate in 2030?
Manifold MarketsTaylor Swift announces pregnancy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US fertility rate surpass 2.1 for any year in the next decade?
Manifold MarketsTaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (November 2026)
KalshiTaylor Swift: Wedding Dress
KalshiRules
Resolves exactly according to these underlying markets:
- [markets]Biconditional defined in the usual fashion: this question resolves yes if both events happen or neither, no if exactly one happens.
