Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 24, 6:21 PM UTCMay 22, 34, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Given the movement in conservative circles towards greater fertility, and general angst among politicos regarding declining birthrates, it is feasible that our politicians and/or cultural influencers find some methods to encourage fertility in the US, and we see an increase in birthrates back to replacement.
- Will this happen in the next decade?
- Current projections provided no interventions:
- https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59899#:~:text=In%20CBO's%20projections%2C%20the%20total%20fertility%20rate%20rises%20from%201.67,and%20to%201.60%20by%202054.
