Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Leader of 25 outcomes
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 25, 1:37 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 12:26 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
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Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)
- Ambiguous/iffy deaths will probably be invalidated if not sufficiently clear whether the character has actually died.
- Characters abandoning a previous identity does not count as them dying (i.e. Alayne Stone, Varys the Spider, etc.)