Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 25, 1:37 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 12:26 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alecto the Ninth come out before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWill "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Manifold MarketsRules
Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)
- Ambiguous/iffy deaths will probably be invalidated if not sufficiently clear whether the character has actually died.
- Characters abandoning a previous identity does not count as them dying (i.e. Alayne Stone, Varys the Spider, etc.)
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for "The Winds of Winter" character death market?
- Manifold Markets prices Barristan Selmy at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does "The Winds of Winter" character death market resolve?
- "The Winds of Winter" character death market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is "The Winds of Winter" character death market settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)