Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
BitcoinOne-OffTrade PolicyUS PoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Manifold 60.3%
Manifold 60.3%Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 25, 7:50 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).
- Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume.
- After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict?play=true)Because of the advantage I ignored the follow predictions:
- #41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
- #43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.
