Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast≥$1T 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 26, 3:49 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic highest valuation by end of September 2026
Manifold MarketsSpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2027
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Epic Games' valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt79.2%
- Yes+1.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $15.1M
- 24h Vol
- $115.1K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+5.0pt46%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt41%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+3.0pt34%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- November 30,+8.0pt92%
- December 31,+1.5pt91%
- December 15,+5.0pt91%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202798%
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $19.5K
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027+26.3pt69.6%
- 11–14B-8.8pt10.8%
- 8–11B-3.9pt4.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Before Jan 1, 202837.6%
- Before Sep 1, 202724.8%
- Before April 1, 202723.1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $306.8K
- 24h Vol
- $11.7K
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Oklahoma vs Michigan
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Ohio State vs Texas
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices ≥$1T at 100% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2026 resolve?
- SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.