Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 13, 26, 5:48 PM UTCMay 13, 28, 5:47 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027
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Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketRules
https://maxfrequency.net/2026/03/13/super-mario-titans-leak/
- https://tech.yahoo.com/gaming/articles/super-mario-titans-real-ai-174651731.html
- [image]Resolves after next 3D Mario is revealed and it becomes certain whether or not this leak was real.
- More pictures at links.
- Update 2026-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves NO if the leak is a canary trap (a Nintendo-made fake with no real corresponding game)
- Resolves YES if the leak is real and the final game is similar enough to confirm the leak
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is the Super Mario Titans leak real??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is the Super Mario Titans leak real? resolve?
- Is the Super Mario Titans leak real? is scheduled to resolve on May 13, 2028.
- How is Is the Super Mario Titans leak real? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://maxfrequency.net/2026/03/13/super-mario-titans-leak/