Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
One-OffEntertainmentSociety & Culture4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 92%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Feb 8, 24, 2:46 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?
Manifold MarketsWill the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
Manifold MarketsThe Super Mario Bros. Movie Stock
Manifold MarketsWhat words will the title of the sequel for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie include?
Manifold Markets60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiKim Kardashian announces passing the Bar Exam by 2027?
PolymarketRules
Recently humans have been closing the time gap between the world record Super Mario Bros speedrun, and the Tool Assisted Speedrun (TAS) theoretical optimal time for the game.
- It is possible that a human will complete a full perfect run of the game in the future, and tie the TAS time.
- Link: https://twitter.com/summoningsalt/status/1755314279715398099
- [image]Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A run using input swapping (a technique recently banned from competitive speedrunning) will not count for resolution.