Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
One-OffEntertainmentSociety & Culture4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92%
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Updated 37 minutes ago
Feb 8, 24, 2:46 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Recently humans have been closing the time gap between the world record Super Mario Bros speedrun, and the Tool Assisted Speedrun (TAS) theoretical optimal time for the game.
- It is possible that a human will complete a full perfect run of the game in the future, and tie the TAS time.
- Link: https://twitter.com/summoningsalt/status/1755314279715398099
- [image]Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A run using input swapping (a technique recently banned from competitive speedrunning) will not count for resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030 resolve?
- Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Recently humans have been closing the time gap between the world record Super Mario Bros speedrun, and the Tool Assisted Speedrun (TAS) theoretical optimal time for the game.