Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
EntertainmentOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 4:23 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The original has grossed $1,360,325,400 worldwide (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/).
- Will the sequel gross more than whatever the original has grossed one year after its release? (If the original gets more money somehow, for example if it re-releases, then the sequel must pass it including that).
- Will resolve to N/A if there's no sequel before 2030.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
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- $2.1M
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- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
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- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
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- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release? resolve?
- Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The original has grossed $1,360,325,400 worldwide (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/).