Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Niftski 45.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 8:11 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 9:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
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Manifold MarketsRules
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.
